第 10 課 民調與管治藝術

丘吉爾曾說：“沒有比活在蓋洛普的民意調查以及反復無常的民意狂飆下更加危險的事了，它可以奪走你的心跳及神智?！?Nothing is more dangerous...than to live in the temperamental atmosphere of a Gallup poll—always feeling one’s pulse and taking one’s temperature.)

美國前總統(tǒng)杜魯門也曾說：“如果當年摩西在埃及進行民意調查，那么他還是否會領導猶太人出埃及？如果當年耶穌基督在以色列進行民意調查，他又會如何傳教呢？如果馬丁·路德當年也進行民意調查，那么是否還會有宗教改革運動呢？關鍵是領導正確與否，而非由一時的輿論及民調所決定?！?How far would Moses have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt? What would Jesus Christ have preached if he had taken a poll in the land of Israel? What would have happened to the Reformation if Martin Luther had taken a poll? It isn’t polls or public opinion of the moment that counts. It’s right and wrong and leadership.)

民意調查從來都是具爭議性的東西，有人對其趨之若鶩，亦有人對之不屑一顧。丘吉爾就完全看不起民意調查，但當然我們都記得，結果如此一位戰(zhàn)爭英雄，在大戰(zhàn)結束后，便意外地被國民以選票擯了下臺。

基辛格曾說：

“政治家的一項艱巨挑戰(zhàn)，便是如何在自己以及選民的視野兩者之間，取得一個交匯點。如果你較選民過于超前，太過高瞻遠矚，便得不到選民的明白和諒解，被他們遺棄；但相反，如果你與選民同步，太過目光短淺，則追不上日新月異的局勢，早晚被時代所淘汰?！?A statesman’s job is to bridge the gap between his vision and his nation’s experience. If his vision gets too far out ahead of his country’s experience, he will lose his mandate. But if he hews too close to the conventional, he risks losing control over events.)