推薦序二應(yīng)對(duì)帝國(guó)衰退之道

國(guó)際勞工研究與信息組織資深研究員肖恩?哈丁

我同意作者有關(guān)美國(guó)實(shí)力在衰退的說(shuō)法。實(shí)際上，大概從20世紀(jì)60年代起，美國(guó)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)主導(dǎo)地位就開(kāi)始動(dòng)搖。美國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)這種變化的方式，是公然的單邊軍事主義與多邊主義的混合體。比如，在20世紀(jì)70年代，歐洲國(guó)家，比如德國(guó)和法國(guó)，以及亞洲的日本，國(guó)家實(shí)力開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)，在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的某些方面與美國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。美國(guó)的應(yīng)對(duì)之策是創(chuàng)立G7/G8，把這些國(guó)家拽入一個(gè)由美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的聯(lián)盟。

在美國(guó)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)之下，G7開(kāi)始在推動(dòng)全球新自由主義方面扮演中心角色。當(dāng)然，這并沒(méi)有阻止美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的下滑，但是，它確實(shí)在某種程度上有效，其他G7/G8國(guó)家接受了美國(guó)在政治和軍事領(lǐng)域的主導(dǎo)。

不過(guò)，到了20世紀(jì)90年代，新的地區(qū)大國(guó)也開(kāi)始崛起，比如巴西、中國(guó)、印度，以及在某種程度上的南非。這就進(jìn)一步侵蝕了美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力。

在某些時(shí)候，美國(guó)也通過(guò)多邊方式——在20世紀(jì)90年代創(chuàng)立G20——應(yīng)對(duì)這些國(guó)家，比如巴西和南非等。這也是為了將這些地區(qū)大國(guó)納入某種程度上的松散的聯(lián)盟。這對(duì)跨國(guó)公司非常有利，因?yàn)榧尤隚20的國(guó)家，比如巴西和南非，成為新自由主義的重要的地區(qū)推手。

雖然如此，但美國(guó)還使用公然的單邊主義和軍事主義方式，警告可能的全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者，比如中國(guó)和俄羅斯。這兩個(gè)國(guó)家不像巴西和南非那樣，愿意繼續(xù)接受美國(guó)的主導(dǎo)。美國(guó)對(duì)伊拉克和阿富汗的入侵，其目的是控制石油和天然氣的供應(yīng)，并將俄羅斯和中國(guó)關(guān)在中東之外。美國(guó)與朝鮮的政治對(duì)質(zhì)，也可以被理解為對(duì)中國(guó)的警告。

實(shí)際上，美國(guó)一直在應(yīng)對(duì)其實(shí)力的衰退，并維持在某種形式上的主導(dǎo)地位。它采取的一種方式是，多邊的政治機(jī)制以及富有侵略性的軍國(guó)主義的混合體。美國(guó)對(duì)伊拉克、阿富汗以及朝鮮的戰(zhàn)略，其實(shí)主要是針對(duì)像中國(guó)這樣的國(guó)家。當(dāng)然，在如何應(yīng)對(duì)其實(shí)力衰退方面，美國(guó)精英中也存在不確定性和分歧。

美國(guó)實(shí)力的衰退確實(shí)創(chuàng)造了南方國(guó)家與美利堅(jiān)帝國(guó)決裂的可能性。委內(nèi)瑞拉就是一個(gè)好例子。

英文原文：

英文原文：

I agree that US power is in decline. In fact, it has been in decline since about the 1960s as,since then,its global economic dominance has been shrinking.The way the US has dealt with this has involved a combination of multilateralism mixed with overt unilateral militarism.For example,by the 1970s,European countries like Germany and France,along with Japan,started growing and in some ways competing with the US in the global economy.The US’s response to this was to create the G7/G8.The idea was to draw these powers into an alliance,headed up by the US itself. Under the leadership of the US,the G7 has played a central role in promoting neoliberalism globally.Of course this has not stopped the decline of the US ’s economic power,but it did work in a sense that it got many of these other G7/G8 powers to accept the dominance of the US in political and militarily terms.

By the 1990s,however,new regional powers had also arisen, such as Brazil,China,India and to a lesser extent South Africa.This has created a further erosion of the US’s economic power.In some ways the US has also used a multilateral approach to deal with some of these countries,like Brazil and South Africa,by creating the G20 in the late 1990s.Again it was trying to draw in these regional powers into some kind of lose alliance.This has been very effective for multinational corporations,as countries involved in the G20 like Brazil and South Africa have been strong regional promoters of neoliberalism.Nonetheless,the US has also used overt unilateralism and militarism as a warning to possible global competitors like China and Russia,who have proven less amicable than Brazil and South Africa in accepting the continued dominance of the US.Hence the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan,which were aimed at securing oil supplies and shutting out Russia and China from the Middle East.The US’s political confrontation with North Korea could also be read as a symbolic warning to China.

So essentially,the US has been trying to deal with its decline－and maintain some form of dominance－through a mixture of multilateral political maneuvers and at times aggressive militarism,which has been symbolically aimed at countries like China through surrogate actions in Iraq,Afghanistan and to a lesser extent North Korea.This perhaps also reflects the uncertainty and divisions amongst the US elite on how to deal with their declining power.Of course, the decline of the US does create possibilities for countries in the South to begin to break free from US imperialism. A good example of this is Venezuela.（Shawn Hattingh，International Labour Research and Information Group)