柯馬克（Mark Kruger），加拿大經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，現(xiàn)定居上?！，F(xiàn)任一財(cái)全球評論版主編，一財(cái)研究院、加拿大國際治理創(chuàng)新中心（CIGI）和加拿大阿爾伯塔大學(xué)中國學(xué)院高級研究員。曾任加拿大央行國際部高級政策主任、國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）加拿大執(zhí)行董事高級顧問、加拿大駐華大使館財(cái)經(jīng)處負(fù)責(zé)人。作為長期在中國生活并熟悉中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，以及堅(jiān)定的友華人士，馬克以數(shù)據(jù)分析為驅(qū)動，通過過硬的專業(yè)水準(zhǔn)向海外政商界決策人士講述中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展模式及其背后的發(fā)展邏輯。Mark Kruger is a Canadian economist now based in Shanghai. He is the Opinion Editor at Yicai Global. He holds Senior Fellow appointments at the Yicai Research Institute， the Centre for International Governance Innovation and University of Alberta’s China Institute. Previously， Mark was a Senior Policy Director in the Bank of Canada’s International Department， a Senior Advisor to the Canadian Executive Director at the IMF and head of the Economic and Financial Section in the Canadian Embassy in Beijing. Mark began his career at the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission. You can find Mark’s short， data-driven insights into China’s economy here： https：//www.yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.kruger.
圖書目錄
CONTENTS Part I Growth and Risk Over the Medium Term 1 How Fast Will China Grow Over the Next 15 Years 3 China’s Path to High-Income Status Lessons from Recent Success Stories 11 Can China Be the Next South Korea 23 Beidou China’s First Outer Space Infrastructure Project 33 PBOC’s Virtual Renminbi Is Becoming a Reality 38 China’s High-Speed Rail A Case Study in Independent Innovation 46 5G and the Competition to Win the 21st Century 52 Is China’s Investment Really That Unproductive 58 How Sustainable Is China’s Debt 66 China Needs More Defaults and More Meaningful Credit Ratings 77 Is China Facing a Demographic Crisis 84 How Can China Promote a Sustainable Increase in Household Consumption 94 Mooncake Madness 102 American Families Only Half as Rich as Those in Chinese Cities 107 How Should We Think About Rising Home Prices 113 Property Developers: Debt Taking Aim at the Grey Rhino 122 Why Not Eliminate Corporate Income Taxes 130 How Can China Achieve Carbon Neutrality By 2060 140 Part II Data and Analytic Techniques 149 China’s Economy The View From the IMF 151 Are Central Banks Behind the Curve on Inflation 159 Big Mac Prices — No Bull 170 Is the US Chip Export Ban Consistent With Its WTO Commitments 180 Can Robots Help Mitigate China’s Demographic Decline 188 The Demise of China’s Private Sector Greatly Exaggerated 201 Part III China and the Rest of the World 213 US Companies In China for the Long Haul 215 Will Japanese Firms Desert China 224 Shall the Twain Never Meet 232 The High Cost of US-China Decoupling 244 China’s Balance of Payments Show the Dual Circulation Strategy at Work 250 How Long Will Foreign Investors’ Love Affair With Chinese Bonds Last 261 Can China and the US Cooperate and Reform the WTO 271 Are the Worst in US-China Relations Behind Us 279 China and American Foreign Policy for the Middle Class 289 Part IV The Pandemic and the Chinese Government’s Response 295 Advice from VoxEu Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes 297 How Will China Manage Massive Layoffs 303 Is China Decapitalizing Its Banks 309 Are the Chinese Banks Really Supporting the Recovery 317 COVID 19 Is Accelerating China-US Convergence 326 Trust in Chinese Government Defies Global Trend 332 目 錄 部分 中期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和風(fēng)險(xiǎn) / 2 未來15年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期增速是多少? / 7 中國通向高收入國家之路 / 17 中國會成為下一個(gè)韓國嗎? / 28 北斗:中國首個(gè)外太空基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)工程 / 35 中國人民銀行虛擬人民幣正在成為現(xiàn)實(shí) / 42 中國高鐵:自主創(chuàng)新的案例研究 / 49 5G 與贏得21世紀(jì)的競爭 / 55 中國的投資真的沒有收益嗎? / 62 中國的債務(wù)有多可持續(xù)? / 72 中國債券市場需要更多“違約”和更有意義的信用等級評定 / 81 中國是否面臨人口危機(jī)? / 89 如何促進(jìn)中國家庭消費(fèi)的可持續(xù)增長? / 98 月餅狂熱 / 105 美國家庭只有中國城市家庭一半富有 / 110 我們應(yīng)該如何看待房價(jià)不斷上漲? / 118 房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商債務(wù):瞄準(zhǔn)“灰犀牛” / 126 何不取消企業(yè)所得稅? / 135 中國如何在2060年前實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和? / 144 第二部分 數(shù)據(jù)及分析技巧 / 150 中國經(jīng)濟(jì):國際貨幣基金組織如是觀 / 155 中央銀行在通脹問題上落后了嗎? / 165 巨無霸價(jià)格:牛年不吹牛 / 175 美國芯片出口禁令符合其世界貿(mào)易組織承諾嗎? / 184 機(jī)器人能否幫助緩解中國人口下降的趨勢? / 194 中國私營部門的敗落:被過分夸大了 / 207 第三部分 中國與世界 / 214 美國公司:在中國作長遠(yuǎn)打算 / 220 日本企業(yè)會離開中國嗎? / 228 無問西東,相向而行 / 238 中美“脫鉤”的高昂代價(jià) / 247 中國的國際收支表明“雙循環(huán)”戰(zhàn)略正在奏效 / 256 外國投資者和中國債券的“戀情”會持續(xù)多久? / 266 中美可以合作并改革世界貿(mào)易組織嗎? / 275 中美關(guān)系觸底了嗎? / 284 中國與美國對中產(chǎn)階級的外交政策 / 292 第四部分 新冠肺炎疫情和中國政府的應(yīng)對之策 / 296 來自VoxEu的建議:不惜一切代價(jià)迅速行動 / 300 中國將如何應(yīng)對大規(guī)模裁員? / 306 中國欲削減銀行資本? / 313 銀行真在支持中國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇嗎? / 322 新冠肺炎疫情加速縮小中美經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的差距 / 329 全球信任度下滑之際,中國政府信任度逆勢上升 / 336
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