預測學（英文版）

定　價：￥60.00

作　者：	翁文波著呂牛頓，張清編
出版社：	石油工業(yè)出版社
叢編項：
標　簽：	暫缺

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ISBN：	9787502120641	出版時間：	1997-09-01	包裝：	精裝
開本：	16開	頁數(shù)：	233	字數(shù)：

內(nèi)容簡介

　　“With precautions there will be success， otherwise that will be failure”， and “He who has no anxiousthoughts for the future will find trouble right at hand.“These Chinese proverbs all reveal to people the im-portance of forecast. Mr. Weng Wenbo believed that mordern forecast should cover a wild range， such as social forecast （ e.g.population），technical forecast （e.g. developing trend）， economic Forecast （e.g.ten－dency， market， management，etc），and military forecast （e.g.strategy）。

作者簡介

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圖書目錄

Part I Philosophical Background
2. Cognition-Philosophical Basis of Forecast
3.1 Cognition and Knowledge
3.2 Development andEvolution
3.3 Rationale and Phenomenon, Rationalism and Phenomenalism
3.4 Part and Entirety, Fractions and Whole
3.5 NormaIState and AbnormaIState
3.7 Continuity and Discontinuity
Part II Theory System
1.1 Conservation of Abstract System
1.3 AlgebraicSystem
1.6 BinaryOperations
1.7 Multiple Relations
1.8 Commensurability
2.1 Constitution of Physical System
2.2 Conservation of Physical System
2.4 How Are Days Counted
2.5 Physical Aspect of Natural Disasters
3.1 Information and Informative System
3.2 Informative Deduction, Exchange, and Feedback
3.3 Classification of Informative System
3.4 Symmetry and Conservation in Informative System
4.Distribution and Hypothetic Test for Distribution
4.1 Distribution
4.2 Distribution Function and Numerical Feature
4.3 Multivariate Composition of Numerical Distribution
4.4 Hypothetic Distribution and Hypothetic Test
4.5 Selection of Confidence Level
5. Forecast and Forecasting Methods
5.1 Common Concept of Forecast
5.2 Models and Process of Forecast
5.3 Statistic Forecast
5.4 Fitting
5.5 Informative Forecast
Part Ⅲ Practice of Forecast
1.Cases of Forecast
1.1 Forecast of Meteorological Disasters
1.2 Forecast of China's Earthquake
1.3 Forecast of Earthquakes in Foreign Countries
2.Effect Analysis for Forecast of Natural Disasters
2.1 Methods of Estimation
2.2 Analysis of Effectiveness
Part IV Forecast and Operations Research
1.General Concept of Operations Research
2.Junction of Forecast Theory with Operations Research and Some Cases
2.1 Super Long-Range Forecast for Earthquake in Xinjiang Kurle Area,and Suggestions for Anti-Earthquake Measures in Base Construction
2.2 Forecasting and Programming of National Situations
Part V Forecast and Assessment
1.Forecast and Assessment
2. Forecast of World Oil and Natural Gas Production
3. About Natural Gas
3.1 New Knowledge about Natural Gas
3.2 Features of Gas Fields Distribution
4. Estimation for the Trend of Natural Gas Development
Epilogue My Final Words
1.About the Yellow Book
2.Application of Ancient Science-Reasoning of Luo Shu
3.Theoretical Foundation of Forecast
4.About Succession and Development of Forecasting Theory