Preface xi CHAPTER 1 Psychology and Finance 1 A Simple Illustration 2 Prediction 3 Long Term Capital Management 5 Behavioral Finance 6 What to Expect 6 CHAPTER 2 Overconfidence 9 How Overconfidence Affects Investor Decisions 10 Overconfidence and Risk 14 Illusion of Knowledge 14 Illusion of Control 16 Online Trading 17 Online Trading and Performance 18 CHAPTER 3 Fear of Regret and Seeking Pride 21 Disposition Effect 21 Disposition Effect and Wealth 22 Tests of Avoiding Regret and Seeking Pride 23 The Market for Houses 25 Selling Winners Too Soon and Holding Losers Too Long 26 Disposition Effect and News 27 Reference Points 28 CHAPTER 4 Considering the Past 31 House Money Effect 31 Snake Bite or Risk Aversion 32 Trying to Break Even 32 Effect on Investors 33 Endowment or Status Quo Bias Effects 33 Endowment and Investors 34 Memory and Decision Making 35 Memory and Investment Decisions 36 Cognitive Dissonance 37 Cognitive Dissonance and Investing 38 Summary 39 CHAPTER 5 Mental Accounting 43 Mental Budgeting 44 Matching Costs to Benefits 44 Aversion to Debt 46 Sunk-Cost Effect 46 Economic Impact 47 Mental Accounting and Investing 48 CHAPTER 6 Forming Portfolios 51 Modern Portfolio Theory 51 Mental Accounting and Portfolios 51 Perceptions on Risk 53 Risk Perception in the Real World 56 Building Behavioral Portfolios 56 Naive Diversification 58 Retirement Plans 59 CHAPTER 7 Representativeness and Familiarity 61 Representativeness 61 Representativeness and Investing 62 Familiarity 64 Familiarity Breeds Investment 65 Familiarity Breeds Investment Problems 67 CHAPTER 8 Investor Socialization and Mania 71 Sharing Investment Knowledge 71 Herding 72 Speed is of the Essence Not! 72 Investment Clubs 73 Market Mania 76 A Rose.com by Any Other Name 77 The More Things Change... 78 CHAPTER 9 Self-Control and Decision Making 81 Short-Term versus Long-Term Focus 82 Controlling Yourself 82 Saving and Self-Control 83 401 k and IRA Plans 84 Self Control and Dividends 85 Beating the Biases 87 Additional Rules of Thumb 90 Index 93
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